analysis
WAFL 2022: An analysis of what’s gone wrong for Subiaco Lions to start their premiership defence

Has Subiaco’s remarkable run as kings of the WAFL jungle finally ended? It’s the question many supporters of the competition are asking, with the reigning premiers being anything but convincing a third of the way through the season. If not for a Max Walters snap in the dying seconds against East Perth and a Ben Sokol-inspired comeback against Swan Districts in Kalgoorlie, the Lions would be winless alongside the insipid West Coast at the foot of the ladder. Yet they’re just a win outside of the top five, such is the evenness of the competition and capable of continuing to add to their remarkable run. The last time they were 2-6 was 2013, when they would go on to win just six games. And while they missed finals in 2020, it can almost be seen as an anomaly given the shorter season because of the impact of COVID-19. But with nine flags since the turn of the century and five other grand final appearances, the Lions are never too far away from contending. So what exactly is going wrong to start 2022? WHAT THE STATS SAY Subiaco are losing games right now because put simply, they are not able to score. And while it seems such an obvious answer, the Lions’ success has been built on their efficiency up forward and they’re not at the same level this season. Even when Subiaco missed the finals in 2020, they were still second for points for and scores per inside 50, something they’re now rated eighth and ninth for in the competition. What they did lose in 2020 was their ability to score from turnovers and inside-50 differentials. That’s an area they led the league in when they won premierships in 2018, 2019 and 2021. This year they’re ranked eighth for both, meaning they’re not just struggling to convert but they’re battling to get it down there. The change has come down to a lack of personnel that made their forward line so dangerous. While Bernie Naylor medallist Ben Sokol is again leading the competition with 17 goals in six games, he’s not getting much help. Their next best goalkicker for Subiaco is Ryan Borchet, who’s kicked eight goals, but half of those came in one game, their round five win over Swans. Last season, Sokol still led the way with 45 goals, but he had back-up which made the Lions a nightmare to match up on defensively. Nic Martin kicked 24 goals in 17 games, Michael Braut 21 in 20 and Brandon Matera 19 in 13. Martin is now tearing it up for Essendon, becoming one of the recruits of the AFL season and will likely finish in the top five of the Rising Star award if he doesn’t win it. Braut is yet to play this season because of a foot injury, while Matera has struggled with five goals in as many as many games and is also now injured. Add to this the fact that young forward Jack Mayo will miss the season with another anterior cruciate ligament injury, and a lot rests on Sokol’s shoulders. Then there’s the fact their midfield has lost Greg Clark to West Coast and Harry Marsh is just returning from hernia surgery. Recruitment has also been tough after they were handed equalisation sanctions in 2019 and while they were lifted in 2020 they’ve potentially affected the depth the club could draw in. They simply haven’t had the talent on the park. Football manager Kristian Dicton said internally there is still faith in the Lions’ system, with the club not making excuses and instead focusing on what they can control ahead of the next few weeks. WHAT THE COACH SAYS Lions coach Beau Wardman isn’t giving up on the season yet, with just two wins between ninth and third position. But the two-time premiership coach knows his side isn’t going as well as they have in previous years and part of it is down to personnel. “We’ve had a bit of a transition in our list, I think we’ve had 13 debutants across the first six games,” he said. “We’re needing some continuity and continuing to evolve our gameplan. “The competition has improved and our form hasn’t been as consistent as we would’ve liked. We’re certainly building on that and we recognise the season’s over 18 games and with the work the boys are putting in behind the scenes, we know those wins aren’t too far away.” Before Saturday’s loss to East Fremantle, Wardman said the Lions were building back towards some good form. “East Fremantle got us with their run on the outside and got some momentum going and it was difficult to stop once on Saturday,” he said. “I think the energy and the spirit amongst the group has been really strong and at training on Tuesday night it was good. “Our reserves are sitting second on the table, so while we haven’t had all the things at league level we would’ve liked, I think the growth in the group is still there and we’ll still challenge. “If we get one win we’re knocking on the door of the five and obviously we’ll build from that.” Wardman said the first port of call was finding some consistency before they thought about finals. “The season’s not gone, we’ve played six games so far and there’s 12 more to go, so if we can really built some momentum, bank some wins and get to the five, we’re confident we can do some damage,” he said. “That’s a fair way away at the moment. We just need to get some consistency across four quarters.” WHAT’S TO COME Subiaco have an opportunity to be 5-4 at the mid-point of the competition with winnable games against Peel Thunder, Perth and West Coast to come. But the result of two of those games could depend largely on their opponents’ line-ups. The Thunder are the Jekyll and Hyde of the competition this season, defeating teams like Claremont and East Fremantle, but faltering against a struggling Perth. It will depend on how fit Fremantle’s list is as to how strong Peel are through the season and right now it’s looking good for the boys in teal. As for the Eagles, they might sit bottom of the ladder, but the cavalry is slowly returning and it could mean they will be bolstered by more AFL talent towards the back end of the season. West Coast upset Subiaco last season by five points at Leederville Oval, but they featured a dozen AFL-listed talent that day with plenty of experience. Subiaco will be getting some stars back as well and after being hit by COVID-19, their top stars are capable of returning to their once great heights. Either way, by the midpoint of the season we should know where the Lions are at.

analysisWAFL 2022: An analysis of what’s gone wrong for Subiaco Lions to start their premiership defence

analysis
WAFL 2022: An analysis of what’s gone wrong for Subiaco Lions to start their premiership defence