Joe Spagnolo: Speculation about Paul Papalia’s retirement resurfaces as Pauline Hanson circles

One Nation might well find out just how popular it is in WA — well before the next Federal and State elections.

Ongoing speculation that WA Defence Minister Paul Papalia will retire well before the next State election in 2029 is again doing the rounds amongst Liberal — and Labor circles.

Informed Labor insiders say Papalia, the Labor member for Secret Harbour, will almost certainly resign from State politics some time before the end of this year.

The issue is when: Will it be this week before the WA Parliament breaks for winter?

Will Papalia resign during the winter break?

Or will he resign at the end of this year?

That’s what Laborites and Liberals are trying to guess.

Papalia himself continues to bat away questions about his political future — so does the Premier.

Earlier this year when I asked Papalia about his political future, he issued me a statement saying: “I have no plans to retire.”

“I am committed to my portfolios, working with the Premier to diversify and strengthen the economy and make WA an even better place to live,” his statement said.

“In particular, I’m focused on setting our defences sector up to be WA’s largest behind the resources industry.”

And this week, when reporters again asked him whether he was going, Papalia’s response was short and blunt: “Don’t worry about it. It’s just a rumour.”

The early retirement of Papalia — should it happen — poses significant problems for Roger Cook’s Labor Government.

Firstly, Papalia is WA Defence Industries Minister and as such has been an integral part of government planning for AUKUS, which will see UK and US rotations out of HMAS Stirling at Garden Island in 2027 and a massive shipbuilding and nuclear submarine maintenance program at Henderson.

Papalia has received bad press this week over the state of our overpopulated WA prisons — but give me a Corrective Services Minister who has escaped criticism in this tough portfolio over the last 20 years.

The biggest problem for WA Labor, if Papalia goes early, is that Pauline Hanson will be right in there trying to win the Labor seat.

A by-election in Secret Harbour could well be a litmus test of where things are at in WA politics.

Imagine if One Nation were to win Secret Harbour?

Imagine the national political commentary that would follow?

And of course, the Liberals — if they ran in that by-election and lost to One Nation — would be slaughtered.

Labor currently holds Secret Harbour with a comfortable 11.5 per cent margin.

But that margin used to be 31 per cent before last year’s State election.

There was a massive swing away from Labor in that seat last poll.

One Nation’s primary vote in Secret Harbour in 2025 was just 8.4 per cent.

But that was before the Pauline Hanson juggernaut took off.

One Nation’s primary is now above Labor’s and the Liberal’s — at more than 30 per cent, according to national polling.

At the South Australian State election, One Nation picked up four lower house seats — and of course won the Liberal seat of Farrer.

Secret Harbour, south of Perth near Mandurah, is full of first homebuyers who would be feeling the cost-of-living squeeze.

So far this year, there have been three interest rate hikes — with growing inflation causing headaches for the RBA, which will consider further rises this year.

Along comes Pauline Hanson, promising a better tomorrow and an avenue for a good old fashioned protest vote.

You can see why Roger Cook right now would be wanting Papalia to go the full distance and resign at the next election in three years time.

Labor will be hoping for a One Nation implosion.

But in the absence of that, a by-election in Papalia’s seat could be disastrous for Labor.