Donald Trump’s former Defence Secretary says it is expected Australia would fight China over Taiwan alongside the United States, saying the likelihood has been discussed between the two allies for years.
Mark Esper also urged Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and other Indo-Pacific leaders to declare now that they will fight to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
In an exclusive interview, Mr Esper, who served as Secretary of Defence between 2019 and 2020 said he expected that if Chinese President Xi Jinping attacked the democratically-governed island of Taiwan, Australia would be fighting alongside the United States.
“With regard to a conflict with China, yeah, I do expect there would be a role, and we’ve already been talking about this for years,” he said in an interview with the Latika Takes podcast in Prague at the GLOBSEC forum.
He said it was why the US had begun marine rotations through the Northern Territory, which began under former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard and president Barack Obama.
Praising a continuing and warm personal relationship with Defence Minister Richard Marles, who has flagged greater US basing in Australia, Mr Esper said he was “doing a good job” and said the US would defend and protect Australian bases under any Chinese attack in the event of conflict.
China has been Australia’s largest two-way trading partner for nearly two decades, with iron ore comprising around one-third of exports.
He urged leaders in the region to follow Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s lead and declare that an attack on Taiwan would be fought.
“She said the right thing. It’d be nice to hear that same type of statement come out of Seoul and Manila and other places, and I think that type of, I would call it like a declaratory policy, makes clear to Beijing that if they take on that fight, that it’s going to be bigger than just Beijing and Taipei, it’s going to be a number of other countries,” Mr Esper said.
Ahead of his visit to Tokyo this week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr told Japanese media that his country would have “no choice” but to be involved.
“I think in Japan’s case, it is more a matter of choice to be involved (in any potential conflict over Taiwan). In the Philippines, we do not have a choice because Taiwan is so close to the Philippines, and we have almost 200,000 Filipino nationals living and working in Taiwan,” Mr Marcos said.
“Just looking at the map, you can tell that the northern Philippines, at the very least, is going to be part of that or will feel the effects.”
Last year Ms Takaichi told the Japanese parliament that a naval blockade of Taiwan would be an “existential crisis situation”.
Such a classification would allow for a military response under Japan’s pacifist constitution, even if China did not outright invade the island.
In response, the Chinese Communist Party revived against Japan its coercive tactics used against Australia when the former government sought an inquiry into the origins of the COVID pandemic, which killed millions and caused major economic shutdowns.
Mr Esper said the economic pain China inflicted on Japan was worth suffering, adding it had earned Ms Takaichi respect.
The United States’ official policy is one of ambiguity relating to a military conflict over Taiwan, although it is widely assumed that any administration hesitating would face enormous Congressional pressure to defend the island.
Former US president Joe Biden repeatedly said the United States would fight for Taiwan, but was immediately walked back by White House officials.
Donald Trump has kept a more orthodox line, refusing to speculate, although he insists that his presidency would effectively deter Mr Xi from attacking.
Mr Esper said that if a conflict over Taiwan began, it was vital that Taiwan fought to hold off an attack for as long as it would take the US to arrive.
“We need to make the decision quickly, but the other allies in the region need to make the decision quickly as well and that’s where I get to, whether it’s the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, we need quickly for Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Australia, even countries that are not alliance partners, allies, but partners need to stand up and say, we’re in on this as well,” he said.
“Because we’re going to need basing, we’re going to need overflight rights, we’re going to need places to replenish, refuel, to re-arm, to refit.
“And we also need to send a message of coherence and strength to Beijing, that they’re not just fighting the United States or the United States and Taiwan, that they’re fighting all the democracies in the Indo-Pacific.”
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-Lung attended the same forum. Asked by journalists when China might invade, Mr Lin said: “We have the ability and determination to deter the invasion of China”.
He said he was confident of Taiwan continuing its partnership with the United States when asked if he believed the US would fight the Chinese.
Former Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo, who authored the 2009 Defence White Paper and is one of Canberra’s more hawkish figures, said Mr Esper has made a major revelation but was wrong when it came to departing from ambiguity.
“Mr Esper obviously felt free, out of office, to say the quiet part out loud. Even Pentagon Undersecretary Elbridge Colby has not been so blunt about war planning and clarifying mutual expectations, even though it is a central element to his strategy of denial (as per his book),” Mr Pezzullo told The Nightly.
“Behind closed doors we should be having very frank discussions about war planning, and making expectations clear, especially about things like basing and overflight for US combat forces.
“But doing this publicly is a bad strategy as it emboldens Taiwan and backs China into a corner. We should be ambiguous about fighting for Taiwan and unambiguous about fighting alongside our treaty ally in the Pacific Area,” he said.
“Another problem with that position is that the United States cannot and should not make a similar declaration.
“It’s no deterrent if Australia and Asian partners commit definitively to the defence of Taiwan, but the United States doesn’t. China is more effectively deterred by a United States that says very little about the issue but which carries a huge stick.”
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